People eyeing the 'Gaddi' can hardly afford to ignore the omens for a coveted 'Gaddi' at Lucknow. Besides being the largest contributor to the Lok Saha , what makes UP the Mecca of politics ? Why is every one after it ? And with all the permutation and combinations , what is the likely outcome and in what way will it affect the prospects at the centre.
To begin with , UP is the most diverse, casteist state where political experimentation is a continual saga . Infact the amount of churning of idealogies in the last 15 yrs is unprecedented , with mandal poltics occupying the stage oflate .
To begin with the demographic profile of the electorates shall be pertinent. 20% constitute the Upper Caste, 50% the inluential and 'bahubali' OBC's , who preserve the feudal make of predominantly agrarian setup and the remaing the Dalits who 'had' been ostracized , but now seem to be gaining voice thanks to the untiring efforts of BSP supremo Mayawati. Another major group with a strong influence is that of Muslims who majorly constitute the OBC population . Hence the major influence is that of the OBC's which make poaching of votes rampant , Mandal Comission and it's subsequent in toto implementation , buttress the aforementioned point.
Traditionally Congress had a stronghold over the state , by virtue of it's lineage and ancestral obligations of the Gandhi family and a sense of Nationalism strongly articulated in the policies of the Congress Party ,and to a lesser extent Jawaharlal Nehru. However with fringe players gaining ground and targetting niche voters , the Congress' influence began to wane. The splintered groups owed their allegiance to regional players who merely provided lip service . However the Ram Mandir and it's subsequent espousal of 'Hindutva' made BJP the leading light of the day. But once in power BJP , it too failed to live up to their expectations. But by then BSP , SP , RJD had gained a stronghold over the Dalits , the OBC's (The influential Yadav's , the Western UP belt thanks to the Millitia Armed Gangs it Nurtured) and the Jats respectively . That left the Upper Castes open to poaching either by the Congress or by the BJP. Infact just as a measure of their disillusionment and repudiation of the liberal idealogy eulogised by BJP, the Congress seemed to be gaining some ground at it's expense .
Alas ! Rascals such as Arjun Singh and Pathetic Administrators like Manmohan Singh and the Culpable Dynastism , the resurgence was more of a figment of imagination . All the hopes of revival now are pivoted on the Gandhi scion whose naivety has hogged limelight rather than the poltical stewardship . BJP seems to the favourite with the Upper Castes now after a severe beating ,for they are now wary of SP and Congress. Infact this consolidation was evident in the just concluded Civic elections which caught everyone by surprise..
However there are still a lot of factors that will go to decide the fate of UP. One of them is the icon Amitabh Bachan . Though oblivious to politics , his propagation of SP can muster votes to tilt the scales. Another is the scale of influence the Mayawati is trying to built amongst the Upper Castes by fielding Upper Castes candidates. The luring might work for the Upper Castes who, do not see the dalits as their competitors but mere subservients. This scenario is well possible . The other big thing will be the quota politics that the Centre unleashed , what impact it actually makes on ground. It may happen that social and caste based poltical groups may walk away with all the accolodes and votes , leaving the Congress licking it's ass (I Wonder Whose !!).
And going by the current scenario the pivotal decider will be the infrastrucure the parties have built , to mobilize votes and this is where BSP and SP will steal the show . Though BJP and Congress are national parties , they were caught by their own admission napping of their brightened prospects in UP. However late starters may not always finish and the cruel 'May' 'Spring' surprises.
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