The Elections 2009

The elections to 15 th Lok Sabha came to a spectacular end . It lay shattered many of the myths of psephologists who predicted doom , prophesying emergence of third front as the kingmaker .

In the end , the elections were a tame win for the Congress led UPA , with third front left tattering while NDA scrambling for cover after one of the most vituperative elections campaigns .

These elections went the way they actually went , primarily for the reasons that most of the analysts hogging all the limelight on audio visual media , do not care to put before the gullible media .

• OBC Quota : Though the issue raised much hue and cry , with protest erupting all over the country from the pro and the anti lobby , it in a way marked the commitment of UPA to bring about inclusive growth . With springing of so many IIT 's and IIM's , day in day out , an urban voter that might have felt alienated by the divisive caste politics found some succour .
• NREGA : It was a well conceived , however equally ineptly executed scheme that made a sincere effort to bring the ostracized rural folks back into the mainstream . In fact a preliminary analysis of the elections results show a high correlation of the scheme success and the electoral dividends reaped by the incumbent . In fact at states , where the Congress gained was , the support wave was mainly directed as a token of angst for its tardy implementation.
• LK Advani Vs Manmohan : In the battle of titans, it was Manmohan who won handsomely from the electorates . May be the baggage of the past was too much for Mr. Advani , despite having one of the best credentials for the top job , to shackle the voters inclination .
• Inertia : The problem with Indian electorates or the Opposition parties is that they do not believe in creating public. On issues of concern , haranguing rather than debating is the medium of transgressing information . And Indian youth especially living in the urban landscape , just does not want to get himself deeply embroiled to get to the root cause . In that case , status quo serves well and the incumbent gains . To throw a government , a strong undercurrent , has to be nurtured , which was a grand failure of the opposition despite so much pressing and failures on governance and implementation .
• Polarisation : The anti minority polarisation was led by the cunning Mr. Naveen Patnaik , abetted by media by repeatedly snaring up Godhra , and the final cross of the albatross was Mr Varun Gandhi vilification of the Muslims . With regional parties failing to provide a viable alternative , the vote that anyways would have never come to BJP , consolidated to Congress .
• Youth (Rahul and Priyanka's Appeal ) : The Gandhi clan once again succeeded in prevaricating its youth focus while BJP , despite brimming with intelligentsia drawn from IIT amd IIM's like Sudheendra Kulkarni , struck an election campaign devoid of age , sex appeal to woo the youths. I am pretty sure most of the women and majority of men would have been floored by dapper looking Rahul and equally if not pretty Priyanka . The kind of united face presented to the volleys of questions raised , and the rebuttal from all corners , put BJP in a spot .
• Media : A cursory look at the media brings to light the inherent media bias for anti BJP . It only reinforced in the course of election with too much praise on qualities like honesty when it cannot be a selection criteria for a PM . steering the economy in the times of most difficulties .
• Extreme of Centre : BJP's constant harping of ideological and terror issues failed to strike a chord with the voters looking for more tangible promises at least on the face of it . BJP will now have to do a lot of introspection that despite being the natural party of governance , it failed to carry the message to the voters . Also the election slogan of BJP , failed to strike a chord with the rural brethren , who still are struggling to make both ends meet. A more simple , inclusive , policy oriented slogan would have been more voter acceptable .
• Price Rise , Still not Wise : Why was not price rise an issue . It was for the taking , it could have resonated with the masses , who have taken a beating on account of unprecedented surge in prices of essential items .
• Incumbency Gains : Schemes like Loan Waiver , Pay Commision also hepled the Congress the tweak the anti incumbency at the cost of fiscal discipline , which culminates in the amendment of FRBM .

Now that the fort has been lost , the Dream shattered , is it the end of bipolarity in Indian National politics . Will BJP now come under severe infighting and Congress reap the benefits of Incumbency .

The answer is

Short Term : Yes

Long Term : No.

To answer the second , BJP still is the most viable alternative . It has to groom its second run leadership , turn soft on core ideological issues , propagate the right wing ideas intermingled with the best drawn from left , give due weightage to grass root work as source of mobilizing public opinion .

On the positive side , the states where it is incumbent are hot spots of action. Every state needs to be converted ob Gujrat model as source of Good Governance .

And now that the Congress , has been entrusted with the mandate , it will be sooner rather than later when crushing impact of the failed , populist monetary policies coupled with failing revenues on account of economic slowdown starts eating into it.

What seeds of Fiscal mismanagement , they have ploughed , they shall now start bearing thorns and will pinch them like anything . Now that the Congress strategy of making Manmohan a night watchman for 2014 , will start crumbling , the new power equations , with appeals from the PM to have Rahul in the cabinet being displayed through public media , will become more glaring and hopefully more intolerable , for BJP to leverage it .

It will be an opportunity that should not need an invitation to be grabbed . And for the time being , it is best to lie low and set the house in Order .